Default Alive Calculator
Paul Graham asks one question about every startup. If revenue keeps growing at its current rate and costs stay flat, do you reach profitability before the money runs out? Enter your numbers to get the answer, your breakeven month and your runway. Everything runs in your browser. Your numbers leave it only if you ask for the emailed report. We do not store them.
Your numbers
The cash you can spend today. Leave out money you expect to raise.
Revenue you collect in a month. For SaaS, use MRR.
Revenue growth
Use your average monthly growth over the last 3 months. The test assumes this rate continues.
Salaries (yours too), contractors, rent and software. Leave out costs that grow with revenue.
Costs that grow with revenue, as a share of revenue. Examples are hosting, payment fees, AI usage and support.
Growth rates fall as companies get bigger. With this on, your yearly growth rate falls to 82% of the year before. The 82% comes from Rory O'Driscoll's study of SaaS growth.
Your verdict
Default dead
Your cash runs out in month 12. You do not reach lasting profitability first.
- Breakeven
- Month 24, after cash runs out
- Runway
- 11 months
- Runway at today's burn
- 14 months
- This month
- $28K burn
- Cash low point
- -$191K in month 23
What flips the verdict
- Grow revenue 7.1% a month instead of 5%.
- Or cut fixed costs by $9.0K a month, from next month.
- Without the planned hires, you are default alive. Paul Graham calls hiring too fast the biggest killer of startups that raise money.
The projection keeps today's costs flat, apart from your hires. It leaves out new funding, loans and taxes.
Cash balance, next 36 months
Each point is your cash at the end of the month. The dashed line is zero cash.
Month by month
Revenue, costs and cash at the end of each month, from your inputs.
| Month | Revenue | Costs | Net | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $26K | $53K | -$26K | $374K |
| 2 | $28K | $53K | -$25K | $348K |
| 3 | $29K | $73K | -$44K | $304K |
| 4 | $30K | $73K | -$43K | $262K |
| 5 | $32K | $73K | -$41K | $221K |
| 6 | $34K | $73K | -$40K | $181K |
| 7 | $35K | $74K | -$38K | $142K |
| 8 | $37K | $74K | -$37K | $106K |
| 9 | $39K | $74K | -$35K | $71K |
| 10 | $41K | $74K | -$33K | $37K |
| 11 | $43K | $74K | -$32K | $5.6K |
| 12 | $45K | $74K | -$30K | -$24K |
| 13 | $47K | $75K | -$28K | -$52K |
| 14 | $49K | $75K | -$25K | -$77K |
| 15 | $52K | $75K | -$23K | -$100K |
| 16 | $55K | $75K | -$21K | -$121K |
| 17 | $57K | $76K | -$18K | -$140K |
| 18 | $60K | $76K | -$16K | -$155K |
| 19 | $63K | $76K | -$13K | -$169K |
| 20 | $66K | $77K | -$10K | -$179K |
| 21 | $70K | $77K | -$7.3K | -$186K |
| 22 | $73K | $77K | -$4.2K | -$190K |
| 23 | $77K | $78K | -$891 | -$191K |
| 24 | $81K | $78K | $2.6K | -$189K |
| 25 | $85K | $78K | $6.2K | -$182K |
| 26 | $89K | $79K | $10K | -$172K |
| 27 | $93K | $79K | $14K | -$158K |
| 28 | $98K | $80K | $18K | -$140K |
| 29 | $103K | $80K | $23K | -$118K |
| 30 | $108K | $81K | $27K | -$90K |
| 31 | $113K | $81K | $32K | -$58K |
| 32 | $119K | $82K | $37K | -$21K |
| 33 | $125K | $83K | $43K | $22K |
| 34 | $131K | $83K | $48K | $70K |
| 35 | $138K | $84K | $54K | $124K |
| 36 | $145K | $84K | $60K | $184K |
Email me my runway report
Get your verdict, your breakeven month, the full 36-month table and the lever that flips the verdict. It comes as one email.
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Apply to Founder VenturesPaul Graham's default alive test
“Assuming their expenses remain constant and their revenue growth is what it has been over the last several months, do they make it to profitability on the money they have left?”
Paul Graham published "Default Alive or Default Dead?" in October 2015. He asks one question. Assume your expenses stay constant and your revenue grows at the rate of the last several months. Do you reach profitability on the money you have left? If you do, you are default alive. If you do not, you are default dead.
Graham writes that half the founders he talks to do not know the answer. Many of them expect to raise more money. He warns that investors are fickle. A plan that needs the next round to survive is a risk you can measure today.
He names hiring too fast as the biggest killer of startups that raise money. He suggests founders grow by doing things that do not scale, or by redesigning the product themselves. For this reason the calculator asks about planned hires. Run it once with your hires and once without them.
Graham also describes the fatal pinch. It is default dead plus slow growth plus too little time to fix it. The cash low point in your result shows how much time you have.
How the calculator works
The calculator projects your cash balance month by month. Each month, revenue grows at your growth rate. Costs are your fixed costs plus the variable share of revenue. From the start month, each planned hire adds its monthly cost.
The verdict looks 10 years ahead. You are default alive when your cash never goes below zero and you reach a month from which you stay profitable. The chart and the table show the first 36 months.
Breakeven is the first month from which revenue covers costs for the rest of the projection. A profitable month before a new hire does not count if the hire pushes you back into a loss.
Runway is the number of months before your cash goes below zero on the projection. Runway at today's burn is the simple version. It divides your cash by this month's burn and ignores growth.
The levers come from a search over the same projection. The calculator finds the lowest monthly growth rate that makes you default alive. It also finds the smallest cut to fixed costs that does the same.
Growth decay
Growth decay is optional. Rory O'Driscoll of Scale Venture Partners looked at 21 SaaS companies that went public. He found that the growth rate in a year is 80% to 85% of the rate the year before. He uses 82% as his estimate. With decay on, the calculator uses the same 82%. A company that grows 10% a month today grows about 8.8% a month one year later.
Growth benchmarks
- SaaS Capital's 2026 benchmarks put median growth for bootstrapped B2B SaaS companies at 20% a year (2025 data). That is about 1.5% a month.
- The same benchmarks put median growth for equity-backed companies at 25% a year. That is about 1.9% a month.
- Scale Venture Partners found that next year's growth rate is likely to be 85% of this year's. That figure comes from a 2012 study by Andy Vitus.
Limits
The projection is a smooth line from today. Real revenue moves in steps, and churn can rise as you grow. Taxes, loans and new funding are not in the model. Update your numbers each month and watch how the verdict moves.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does default alive mean?
A startup is default alive when it reaches profitability on the cash it has now. The test assumes costs stay constant and revenue keeps growing at its recent rate. Paul Graham defined the term in his 2015 essay "Default Alive or Default Dead?". A default dead startup runs out of money first, unless it raises more or changes course.
How do I know if my startup is default alive or default dead?
You need five numbers: cash in the bank, monthly revenue, monthly revenue growth, fixed costs and costs that grow with revenue. Project your cash month by month. If revenue overtakes costs before your cash reaches zero, you are default alive. This calculator does the projection for you and adds your planned hires.
How do you calculate startup runway?
The simple formula is cash divided by monthly burn. Burn is costs minus revenue. A company with $300,000 in the bank that burns $25,000 a month has 12 months of runway. Simple runway ignores growth. If revenue grows, real runway is longer. This calculator shows both numbers.
What growth rate do I need to be default alive?
It depends on your cash, your burn and your costs per dollar of revenue. No single rate works for every company. The calculator searches for the lowest monthly growth rate that makes your company default alive. A default dead result shows you that rate next to your current one.
Do planned hires change the verdict?
Often, yes. A hire adds a fixed monthly cost from the day they start. Paul Graham calls hiring too fast the biggest killer of startups that raise money. Enter your hiring plan to see how it moves your breakeven month. The result also tells you if the company is default alive without the hires.
What is the difference between default alive and ramen profitable?
Ramen profitable means the company makes just enough to pay the founders' living expenses. Paul Graham described it in 2009. Default alive is about the whole company. It asks if the company reaches profitability before its cash runs out. Use our ramen profitability calculator for the founder side of the question.
Do you store the numbers I enter?
No. The calculator runs in your browser. Your numbers leave your device only if you ask for the emailed report. The server uses them to build that one email and keeps no copy.
Sources
- Paul Graham, Default Alive or Default Dead? (October 2015)
- Paul Graham, Ramen Profitable (July 2009)
- Rory O'Driscoll, Understanding the Mendoza Line for SaaS growth (TechCrunch, February 2018)
- Andy Vitus, Predictable Growth Decay in SaaS Companies (Scale Venture Partners, November 2012)
- SaaS Capital, 2026 Private B2B SaaS Company Growth Rate Benchmarks